March is finally upon us, and as tends to be the case, the transition to postseason basketball feels abrupt. All around the country, teams that wrapped up their regular seasons over the weekend are stepping right into the early rounds of conference tournaments –– often with a great deal on the line. Such is the case in the American Athletic Conference as well, where a handful of solid teams will be looking to break through (and potentially make NCAA-Tournament-worthy statements).
Here’s a look ahead at the action….
Tournament Matchups
Game 1: #9 East Carolina vs. #8 South Florida
Game 2: #10 SMU vs. #7 UCF
Game 3: #11 Tulsa vs. #6 Wichita State
Game 4: Game 1 Winner vs. #1 Houston
Game 5: #5 Temple vs. #4 Cincinnati
Game 6: Game 2 Winner vs. #2 Memphis
Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. #3 Tulane
Game 8: Game 4 Winner vs. Game 5 Winner
Game 9: Game 6 Winner vs. Game 7 Winner
Game 10: Game 8 Winner vs. Game 9 Winner
First Round
Game 1: #9 East Carolina vs. #8 South Florida
The 8-9 matchup in a conference tournament is typically a bit of a toss-up. In this case however, South Florida will be considered a strong favorite. The Bulls beat ECU at home and away, and also closed out the season winning three of four. There’s a slim chance the Pirates get lead scorer Javon Small back from injury, but it seems unlikely.
Game 2: #10 SMU vs. #7 UCF
Both of these teams frustrated their fans at times this season, and neither closed out conference play the way they’d have liked to. The one time they met though –– albeit back in early January –– UCF was decidedly the stronger team. The Knights’ guards had their way throughout the game, and ought to again if they play to their capability.
Game 3: #11 Tulsa vs. #6 Wichita State
This game would appear to be little more than a formality. Tulsa lost its last 11 games, and 18 of its last 19 on the season. Wichita State has its flaws, but it also plays a brand of basketball that minimizes the chance of a major upset. The Shockers don’t rely heavily on made threes; they rebound; and they play defense.
Second Round
Game 4: Game 1 Winner vs. #1 Houston
A consistent top-3 team in the country, Houston went 17-1 in conference play. It will be the clear favorite against any team it faces this week. It is worth noting however that potential Game 4 opponent South Florida came within six points of the Cougars in Houston earlier this season. The Bulls rode hot shooting and a slight rebounding edge to a surprisingly tense late-game finish. East Carolina, meanwhile, lost by 19 in its only meeting with Houston.
Game 5: #5 Temple vs. #4 Cincinnati
The only second-round game that isn’t waiting on a first-round winner will be between Temple and Cincinnati –– two evenly matched sides who split their regular-season matchups home and home. Temple will hope to recapture the magic that helped it to a four-win streak in the midst of conference play, and the only victory anyone in the AAC had over Houston. Cincinnati finished the season looking like the stronger team, however, and will look to ride its high-scoring guard duo of Landers Nolley II and David DeJulius into the semifinals.
Game 6: Game 2 Winner vs. #2 Memphis
Memphis has been the second-best team behind mighty Houston, and in fact nearly upset the Cougars in their final game. That said, the Tigers will have a challenge on their hands if UCF is able to get past SMU in Game 2. Memphis and UCF played two of the American’s most dramatic games –– the first an overtime thriller that went to UCF 107-104, and the second a tense, 64-63 win for the Tigers.
Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. #3 Tulane
Tulane doesn’t have the national pedigree of Memphis, nor does it boast a star quite like the Tigers’ Kendric Davis. That said, the Green Wave were neck-and-neck with Memphis, a tier below Houston, for most of the season. This is a strong basketball team. That said, the Green Wave also split their conference meetings with both of their potential opponents in Wichita State and Tulsa. Look for a tight contest no matter which team plays Tulane.
Semifinals & General Outlook
Beyond the opening rounds, the top half of this bracket may be somewhat lacking in suspense. Houston is simply a tier above the rest of the league, and will be looking to gain momentum heading into an NCAA Tournament in which it may be the top overall seed. The Cougars ought to reach the final, with Cincinnati and its potent offense perhaps representing the biggest potential threat along the way. y
On the bottom half of the AAC bracket though, it feels more as if anything could happen. Memphis earned its 2-seed and will rightfully be favored to advance. But a potential second-round matchup with UCF could well stop the Tigers and open things up –– either for a deeper Knights run or for the Game 7 winner to make a surprise championship appearance.
In the end, any outcome other than Houston cutting down the nets will be a surprise. But there are a handful of teams in this field capable of competing with the best on any given night. And we know that in March, everything gets a little bit more possible.
