Entering the 2023 NFL season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were, by any measure of sports analytics, a worse team than before. They were fresh off an early exit from the Playoffs and for the first time since arriving in Tampa, Father Time had made Tom Brady look human. Brady announced his permanent retirement from football and panic ensued. You can’t lose the best Quarterback the game has ever seen, with no viable replacement, and maintain much optimism.
It seemed the Bucs were at a crossroads between a full scale rebuild and some sort of roster-building Hail Mary. TB12 retiring was a gut punch, but even with the GOAT under center in 2022, the Bucs were objectively less talented than the previous year. In 2021, Tom Brady threw for 43 touchdowns with a QB rating of 102.1 for the season. Brady finished the 2022 campaign with only 25 touchdowns and a rating barely hitting 90. The team overall went from scoring 30 points a game to only 18.4 and after Brady’s departure, a dark cloud hung over Raymond James Stadium.
The 2022 Buccaneers managed a second straight NFC South title, almost by default, by being “good enough” in a division with turmoil across every organization. The Bucs entered 2023 with the fourth worst odds to make the Super Bowl preseason and according to Draft Kings were least likely to win their division. They had an over/under of 6.5 wins and talks of tanking surfaced on local Sports radio.
Enter Buccaneers’ GM Jason Licht, who had already been in contact with multiple veteran Quarterbacks and had briefly considered starting the young Kyle Trask, who the Bucs drafted in the second round of the 2021 Draft. Franchise quarterbacks don’t grow on trees, and while he was a serviceable backup, Trask was not ready for the starting spot. There would be no rebuild. There would be no uncertainty. There would, however, be a gamble of epic proportions. The risk? Bringing in a scrappy, undersized veteran QB named Baker Mayfield.
Photo Courtesy of: www.buccaneers.com
Mayfield has become a folk hero of sorts wherever he’s played. Tampa is no exception. He showed up to town and was an immediate winning vibe. His teammates would watch him get utterly destroyed by a defensive lineman and before they could come to his aid, he’d pop up off the ground and start barking in the guys face. Jason Licht and Baker had spoken extensively in the leadup to Mayfield’s arrival and both men knew what the other was seeking. Licht’s secret sauce was “letting Baker be himself”, and it paid off in spades.
Sources: The #Bucs are closing in on a deal with QB Baker Mayfield, helping Tampa Bay become home for their starter. He gets a 3-year deal worth $100M with $50M guaranteed.
The Bucs continue to work on keep their core. pic.twitter.com/Ir28N6cDt1
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 10, 2024
The Bucs, a +800 preseason to win the NFC South, won their division and finished 2023 by dismantling the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles 32-9 in the Playoffs. Mayfield, along with his number one receiver Mike Evans, signed new contracts to keep them in the Bay and their ceiling entering this year’s Draft is higher than anyone could have imagined 14 months ago when Tom Brady hung up his cleats for good. The gamble on Baker (and himself) paid off for Jason Licht and Todd Bowles. Baker and company cooked up enough goodwill that the team has redoubled efforts to stack the team behind him with talent and enter the 2024 season as nobody’s underdog. The Bucs aren’t accepting mediocrity; they are expecting success.
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