By most any measure, the 2022-23 season was a step in the wrong direction for the ACC. The teams at the top of the standings aren’t quite up to the conference’s elite standard, and depth is lacking in the 15-team league. While these are valid critiques, however, the ACC also improved over the course of the season. A number of teams in the conference played some of their best basketball in February, and it feels as if several of those teams are capable of making a run to win this tournament.
The ACC Tournament has become a sprawling affair, with all 15 teams receiving invitations. This makes previewing the action challenging. Nevertheless, here’s an overarching look at the games and matchups to come.
Tournament Matchups
Game 1: #12 Florida State vs. #13 Georgia Tech
Game 2: #10 Boston College vs. #15 Louisville
Game 3: #11 Virginia Tech vs. #14 Notre Dame
Game 4: #8 Syracuse vs. #9 Wake Forest
Game 5: Game 1 Winner vs. #5 Pittsburgh
Game 6: Game 2 Winner vs. #7 North Carolina
Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. #6 NC State
Game 8: #1 Miami vs. Game 4 Winner
Game 9: #4 Duke vs. Game 5 Winner
Game 10: #2 Virginia vs. Game 6 Winner
Game 11: #3 Clemson vs. Game 7 Winner
Game 12: Game 8 Winner vs. Game 9 Winner
Game 13: Game 10 Winner vs. Game 11 Winner
Game 14: Game 12 Winner vs. Game 13 Winner
First Round
Game 1: #12 Florida State vs. #13 Georgia Tech
As evidenced by their seeding, these two teams struggled mightily throughout the ACC season. Of the two however, Florida State had more bright spots. The Seminoles nearly toppled Clemson (when the Tigers were rolling atop the conference); they recently upset a Miami team ranked top-15 nationally; and they in fact beat Georgia Tech by 11 in the teams’ lone meeting. The Seminoles also boast the lone star player between the sides in Matthew Cleveland. It’s not a given, because neither team is very strong, but Florida State should be favored here.
Game 2: #10 Boston College vs. #15 Louisville
Louisville, often a powerhouse, just endured one of the more disastrous regular seasons in recent power conference history. The Cardinals are in the early stages of a particularly dramatic coaching transition and roster overhaul, and looked uncompetitive en route to a 2-18 ACC record. Now, Louisville did show some improvement later in the season, most notably with a win over Clemson. But Boston College –– which beat the Cardinals by 10 in January –– is the superior team.
Game 3: #11 Virginia Tech vs. #14 Notre Dame
These are two of the toughest teams in the ACC to read. Virginia Tech boasts some of the top individual performers in the conference (such as Justyn Mutts and Grant Basile) as well as wins over Duke, Virginia, and Pittsburgh. They also have a handful of bad losses, however, and finished just 8-12 in conference play. Notre Dame, meanwhile, was just a win better than Louisville at 3-17 –– but recently came within four points of Duke, four of North Carolina, and two of Virginia. They also beat a 25th-ranked Pittsburgh team to close out their home slate. Frankly, this one might just come down to which team has the hot hand from deep, as both rosters boast some fearsome shooters.
Second Round
Game 4: #8 Syracuse vs. #9 Wake Forest
Syracuse’s season was marked by fairly dramatic up-and-down swings. Even in the final week of the season, the Orange suffered a humiliating 20-point loss to Georgia Tech, only to turn around and beat the same Wake Forest team they’ll face in this game. If the Demon Deacons are to do better this time around, they’ll have to contain Syracuse big Jesse Edwards, whose monstrous 27-point, 20-rebound performance fueled the Orange’s recent victory. Wake Forest can’t be too encouraged that its recent loss to Syracuse also came despite the Orange shooting a woeful 2-14 from three.
Game 5: Game 1 Winner vs. #5 Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh’s surprisingly excellent season was good enough to win Jeff Capel the ACC’s Coach Of The Year award in a runaway vote. The Panthers did fade somewhat down the stretch, with three road losses in their last five games. They also lost one of their two games against potential opponent Florida State (winning both matchups with their other possible foe, Georgia Tech). Still, this is a battle-tested team led by two of the ACC’s best players in Blake Hinson and Jamarius Burton, and it should be favored to advance regardless of who wins Game 1.
Game 6: Game 2 Winner vs. #7 North Carolina
North Carolina handled both of its potential opponents, Boston College and Louisville, with relative ease. The Tar Heels also boast a massive talent advantage on both teams. That said, it’s anybody’s guess how UNC will perform in the unfamiliar position of likely needing to win this tournament to make the NCAAs. This team has lacked focus for much of the season. If it taps into determination, it could be dangerous; if it already feels defeated, this could be an interesting game.
Game 7: Game 3 Winner vs. #6 NC State
NC State beat both Virginia Tech and Notre Dame during the regular season, albeit in close games. More generally, the Wolfpack can be one of the most dangerous teams in the ACC on any given night –– as proven in January wins over Duke and Miami, and even a near-upset of Kansas early in the season. As mentioned, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame can both be tricky when they’re hitting shots, but NC State at its best can handle either opponent.
Third Round
Game 8: #1 Miami vs. Game 4 Winner
Miami earned its 1-seed with strong play throughout the conference season. This is a well-coached, veteran Hurricanes group that many will see as the ACC’s best chance at a deep NCAA Tournament run. Miami also struggled with its potential opponents, however. It only beat Syracuse by four at home, and it was in a three-point slugfest with Wake Forest with under 10 minutes to go before winning by nine. The Hurricanes will be favored, but aren’t unbeatable.
Game 9: #4 Duke vs. Game 5 Winner
Duke finished the season hotter than any other team in the conference, and finally looks close to what it was believed to be entering the season. The Blue Devils have won six straight, and went 3-0 against their three potential opponents. That said, a rematch with Pittsburgh would make for an intriguing contest. The Panthers were tied with Duke half way through the second half in Durham in the teams’ lone matchup.
Game 10: #2 Virginia vs. Game 6 Winner
Virginia shared the ACC regular season title with Miami, though it finished the season with a 2-2 stumble, losing at Boston College and North Carolina. Notably, those are the two most likely opponents for the Cavaliers (barring a shocking run by Louisville). Virginia would still be favored against either side, but won’t be getting a free pass to the semifinals.
Game 11: #3 Clemson vs. Game 7 Winner
If you’re looking for a top-four seed with a “double bye” to be upset, Clemson might be the pick. The Tigers finished third in the ACC on the strength of a red-hot start to the conference slate. But they also dropped down to Earth toward the end of January, and went just 4-5 in their final nine games. On the plus side for the Clemson faithful, the team did go 4-0 against its three potential opponents (though it barely scraped past Virginia Tech on two occasions).
Semifinals & General Outlook
As stated previously, the ACC Tournament feels like a fairly open contest between a number of capable teams –– even if the conference isn’t what it typically is. There is no runaway favorite, and there are a few teams playing on the first day capable of winning couple games.
On the top half of the bracket, the smart money still has to be on a clash between Miami and Duke –– the best team in the conference, and the hottest. The two teams split their matchups during the regular season, with Miami losing in Durham but then thrashing the Blue Devils at home. A rubber match would be excellent entertainment, and it does feel as if one of these teams belongs in Saturday’s conference championship.
The bottom half of the bracket feels even more wide open. The two double-bye teams, Virginia and Clemson, finished the regular season looking more vulnerable than Miami and Duke. Furthermore, some of the teams without double byes –– North Carolina, NC State, and even Virginia Tech –– can take down heavyweights on any given night. On pure talent and quality, Virginia and NC State might be the likeliest to break through. But a desperate North Carolina team and a Clemson group wanting to prove itself shouldn’t be overlooked.
As for the ACC champion, it’s anybody’s guess at this point. At least six or seven teams are fully capable of cutting down the nets in Greensboro. Consider Miami, Duke, Virginia, and NC State the favorites though.
